Matt Jacob Contributing writer Wed, October 7, 2026 at 8:02 PM UTC About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement A team that has won and covered 11 of its last 12 games facing an opponent that has yet to cash a ticket this season.
The only NFL franchise off to a 4-0 ATS start traveling across the country to play a team that scored the biggest of seven upsets in Week 4.
And the latest edition of one of the NFL's fiercest rivalries — this one featuring a betting line that hasn't been seen in two decades.
Each of these clashes are included in my Week 5 NFL betting trends report — as are two West Coast battles involving four of the top six Super Bowl favorites.
• Philadelphia squandered a 20-10 lead at home against the Rams in Week 4, giving up two touchdowns in the final four minutes to lose 24-20 — the team's second straight defeat.
In failing to cash as a 3.5-point home underdog against Los Angeles, the Eagles are now 0-4 ATS to start a season for the first time in franchise history.
Philly hasn't failed to cover in five straight games since ending the 2023 season in an 0-6 ATS funk.
• The Jaguars went to Cincinnati in Week 4 and held off the Bengals 22-17 as a 2.5-point underdog.
Jacksonville is now riding an 11-1 SU and ATS regular season hot streak. Over this stretch, the Jaguars are 7-0 SU and ATS as a favorite and have tallied eight wins by 14 points or more.
• Prior to Sunday's loss to the Rams, Philadelphia had won five consecutive games as an underdog. The last time the Eagles were a regular-season underdog of more than six points: Week 6 of 2021.
On the bright side, Philadelphia has defeated the Jaguars five consecutive times since 2010 (4-1 ATS). In the most recent meeting two years ago, the Eagles prevailed 28-23 but failed to cash as a 7.5-point home favorite.
• With this game taking place in London, it's worth mentioning that Jacksonville is 7-7 SU and ATS at its overseas home since 2013.
But here's the more intriguing NFL betting trend: The winner covered the point spread in all 14 games.
• Jacksonville's defense has now held 11 of its last 12 foes to fewer than 21 points while yielding an average of 14.1 PPG.
Conversely, the Eagles are allowing 23.3 PPG across their last six games (playoffs included), surrendering between 20 and 27 points in each one.
Orchard Park, NY - October 4: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass in the first quarter. The New England Patriots played the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium on October 4, 2026.
• In an AFC West battle of unbeatens, the Raiders came out on the short end of a 30-27 loss to visiting Kansas City in Week 4. Las Vegas did cover the 4.5-point spread, though, to improve to an NFL-best 4-0 ATS.
Going back to last season, the Raiders are riding the following positive NFL betting trends: 6-1 ATS overall, 6-1 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 ATS as a visitor.
• Patriots quarterback Drake Maye had one touchdown pass and six turnovers through three games. He then went to Buffalo in Week 4 and flipped the script by tossing three TDs in a 29-26 win over the previously undefeated Bills (even if he had two additional turnovers).
In producing the biggest Week 4 upset as a 7-point road underdog, the Patriots improved to 3-1 ATS this season and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 regular season games. Within that 18-game stretch, New England is 6-2 ATS at home and 9-2 ATS as a favorite.
• Las Vegas is 3-0 SU and ATS against the Patriots since 2022. That includes a 20-13 upset as a 2.5-point road underdog in last year's season opener.
Previously, though, the Raiders had lost six straight games to New England (1-5 ATS).
• Las Vegas has scored at least 26 points in every game and is averaging 28.8 PPG, which ranks eighth in the NFL.
Meanwhile, even after Sunday's 29-point outburst in Buffalo, New England is still netting just 16.2 PPG. Only Tennessee (13.8) and Miami (11.5) have been more anemic.
Throw in their final two playoff games in 2025 — the AFC Championship Game and Super Bowl — and the Patriots are averaging just 14.7 PPG in their last six.
• Chicago has gotten by just fine without injured starting quarterback Caleb Williams, posting two home wins over the Eagles and Jets by a combined score of 50-19. The Bears easily covered the point spread in both contests, improving to 3-1 SU and ATS on the season.
Going back to Week 3 of last season and including two postseason games, Chicago is in the midst of a 15-6 SU and 16-4-1 ATS run (6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS on the road, and 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS as a favorite).
• Green Bay rebounded from an ugly 35-14 Thursday night home loss to Atlanta in Week 3 with a 17-14 victory at Tampa Bay as a 2.5-point road favorite — its first spread cover of 2026.
Despite that, the Packers still carry the following negative ATS streaks into this contest (playoffs included): 4-14-2 overall, 1-5-1 at home, 2-6-1 as an underdog, 4-8-2 against NFC North foes (all since the start of 2024) and 0-3-1 against the Bears (all as a favorite).
• Green Bay dropped its final two games to the Bears last season, both in Chicago (22-16 in overtime in Week 16 as a 1-point underdog and 31-17 in the playoffs as a 1.5-point favorite).
Bet the Chicago Bears to cover the spread at sportsbooks
Those results aside, recent NFL betting trends favor the Packers in this NFC North rivalry: Since 2008 — and including two postseason matchups — Green Bay is 30-8 SU and 26-11-1 ATS against the Bears, including 15-3 SU and 12-5-1 ATS at Lambeau Field.
The Packers were favored in all 18 of those home games. In fact, this is the first time since the 2006 season opener that Chicago is favored at Lambeau.
• The Bears' last three games stayed under the total, but all were in the Windy City.
The over is 8-3 in Chicago's last 11 as a visitor, including a season-opening 59-37 win at Carolina. Also, each of the Packers' last three home games have cleared the closing total.
• San Francisco improved to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS with a 24-14 Week 4 triumph over Denver as a three-point home chalk. It was the team's third double-digit victory.
The 49ers, who are one of three remaining unbeatens, are now 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS since the 2025 season kicked off. However, they're just 3-4 SU/ATS as an underdog.
• Seattle bounced back from a surprising 33-31 loss at Washington as an 8.5-point favorite with a 30-23 Week 4 victory over the still-winless Chargers (pushing as seven-point home chalk).
Since their Week 1 home loss to the 49ers last season — and including their Super Bowl run — the Seahawks are 20-3 SU and 16-6-1 ATS overall; 10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS at home; and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS against the NFC West.
SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 04: Brock Purdy #13 of the San Francisco 49ers runs with the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Levi's Stadium on October 04, 2026 in Santa Clara, California.
Seattle also has won 17 of its last 18 as a favorite — the lone setback was at Washington two weeks ago — while going 12-5-1 ATS.
• The 49ers followed their season opener against the Rams in Australia with three consecutive home games. So this marks the team's first contest on the road, where last year San Francisco went 8-3 SU and ATS (playoffs included).
Interestingly, the 49ers' 2025 season started with a 17-13 win at Seattle as a 2.5-point favorite and ended with a 41-6 divisional playoff loss at Seattle as a seven-point underdog.
Over the past six regular seasons, San Francisco is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS against the Seahawks, including 4-0 SU and ATS as a visitor.
• One NFL betting trend that the Seahawks can lean into this week: Including last year's playoff clash, the favorite has won eight of the last nine in this rivalry (7-2 ATS).
Also of note: The under is 6-2 in the last eight regular season meetings, with the last three in a row staying low.
Only two of the last nine head-to-head matchups have featured more than 45 combined points.
• Buffalo entered Week 4 as one of a trio of 3-0 SU and ATS squads. However, the Bills exited Week 4 with a 29-26 loss to the rival Patriots as a 7-point home favorite.
Even with that surprising defeat, Buffalo has won 34 of its last 45 regular season games (25-20 ATS).
Only twice during this span have the Bills dropped back-to-back games: Weeks 5 and 6 in 2025 (New England and Atlanta) and Weeks 4 and 5 in 2026 (Baltimore and Houston).
• Not only did the Rams rally late for a 24-20 victory at Philadelphia in Week 4, they also managed to cover as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Los Angeles is now 22-10 ATS in its last 32 regular season contests, including 17-7 ATS when laying points.
• The Bills are just 14-11 SU and 12-13 ATS in their last 25 games away from Buffalo. That includes a 44-42 loss at the Rams as a 3.5-point road favorite in Week 14 of 2024.
However, since that game, the Bills have delivered three straight regular season upsets as an underdog: 48-42 at Detroit as a 2.5-point underdog (Week 15 in 2024); 41-40 versus Baltimore as a 1.5-point pup (Week 1 in 2025); and 28-21 at Kansas City as a 2.5-point 'dog (Week 9 in 2025).
Bet Buffalo Bills to cover the spread at sportsbooks
• Through four weeks, the Rams have played just once at SoFi Stadium; in Week 2, they buried the Giants 28-6 as a 6.5-point chalk.
With that, Los Angeles carries a six-game home winning streak (5-1 ATS) into this Monday Night Football battle. Furthermore, dating to their upset of the Bills in 2024, the Rams are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS at home.
• Here's your quirky NFL betting trend of the week: The under is 9-2 in Buffalo's last 11 prime-time road games.
None of those games cleared 45 total points.
Source: Sport
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