A (Semi) Statistical Recap of UCF

A (Semi) Statistical Recap of UCF

LAWRENCE, KANSAS - NOVEMBER 07: Wide receiver Josh Derry #5 of the UCF Knights scores a touchdown on a pass reception against the Kansas Jayhawks in the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium on November 07, 2026 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) | Getty Images mike ville · SB Nation Mon, November 9, 2026 at 2:05 PM UTC · 10 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Kansas trailed UCF 26-7 early in the third quarter, having managed just 61 yards of offense in the entire first half.

But then the Jayhawks scored 25 unanswered points, drove 95 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:06 remaining, and took a 32-26 lead. Victory was in our grasp!

Because of course. Leave it to KU Football to regularly snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

This Kansas football program is something else, let me tell ya. Feels like the American Psychological Association could have a field day trying to analyze the Kansas Football Jayhawks.

I'm not entirely sure how to describe what happened Saturday at Memorial Stadium. Kansas played some of its worst football of the season, followed by some of its best football of the season, followed by another spectacular late-game collapse in a season already filled with them.

And now the Jayhawks are 3-6, with three games remaining and no margin for error if they want to become bowl eligible.

The numbers are, for lack of a better word, ridiculous. Kansas finished with 404 yards of offense to UCF's 358. The Jayhawks averaged 5.7 yards per play while allowing 5.3. KU rushed for 194 yards on 39 attempts (5.0 YPC), while holding the Knights to 107 yards on 37 attempts (2.9 YPC). Kansas converted six of 14 third downs and both fourth-down attempts.

Through the first two quarters, KU accumulated 61 yards on 26 plays. That's 2.3 yards per play. Isaiah Marshall completed 4-11 passes for 20 yards. The Jayhawks managed just two first downs. KU's only touchdown came courtesy of a UCF turnover that gave the Jayhawks possession at the UCF 3-yard line. Naturally, it took four plays to gain those three yards.

However, the Jayhawks only trailed 12-7 at halftime despite their offense contributing practically nothing to the proceedings. But things got worse before they got better. A long UCF kickoff return to open the second half and another Kansas fumble helped the Knights build a 26-7 lead early in the third quarter.

At that point, I was wondering what kind of idiot you all have writing your previews around here. Dude actually predicted a blowout KU victory! He was clearly under the influence of something much stronger than Kool-Aid.

Anyway. Suddenly, inexplicably, the Jayhawks remembered how to play football.

In the second half, Kansas gained 343 yards on 45 plays, averaging 7.6 yards per play. The Jayhawks scored 25 points, including 18 in the fourth quarter, and suddenly looked like an offense capable of moving the ball against Big 12 competition.

That's an extraordinary turnaround, by the way. From 2.3 YPP to 7.6, against the same opponent, in the same game. Lance Leipold indicated afterward that KU simplified its offensive approach and increased its tempo, and the results were pretty convincing. Marshall settled down considerably, and Kansas started making better use of his ability to extend plays and threaten defenses with his legs.

Marshall finished with 210 passing yards and 125 rushing yards, including two rushing touchdowns. He was clearly the driving force behind KU's second-half offensive resurgence. And when Kansas absolutely needed its offense to deliver, Marshall did exactly that.

Trailing 26-24 with 2:27 remaining, the Jayhawks took possession at their own 5-yard line and drove 95 yards for the go-ahead touchdown. The drive included a fourth-down conversion deep in KU territory and a 42-yard completion to Nahzae Cox that set up Dylan Edwards' two-yard touchdown run. KU then converted the two-point attempt, giving the Jayhawks a six-point lead with 1:06 remaining.

The offense that couldn't gain even 65 yards in the first half had just driven 95 yards in 81 seconds with the game on the line. That should have been the story of this game.

Instead, UCF responded by driving 73 yards in 60 seconds, scoring the winning touchdown with one second remaining.

KU had the visitors facing third-and-10 and third-and-11 on that final possession. Both times, UCF converted, gaining 20 and 19 yards, respectively. A defensive pass interference penalty then gave the Knights first-and-goal at the Kansas 6, and Alonza Barnett III found Caden Piening for the winning touchdown. The touchdown was reviewed, but the ruling stood.

And that's how you turn one of the more remarkable comebacks of the season into yet another loss.

To be fair, the Kansas defense actually played pretty well for significant portions of the game. The Jayhawks held UCF to 2.9 yards per rushing attempt, recorded four sacks, and forced punts on three consecutive possessions in the second half to give the offense opportunities to engineer a comeback.

The defensive line was particularly impressive. Leroy Harris III had three sacks and forced a fumble. David Santiago, questionable all week with an injury, recorded 2.5 tackles for loss and recovered a fumble. Blake Herold added four tackles for loss and another forced fumble. That's a lot of disruption from a defense that ultimately couldn't make one final stop.

And it's particularly frustrating because Kansas had actually done what we keep asking this team to do. The Jayhawks overcame adversity, made second-half adjustments, protected the football during their comeback, and put themselves in position to win.

There were other problems that contributed to the loss, too. Kansas lost two fumbles, and special teams continues to be a source of frustration. KUSports reported that KU used three different approaches to kickoffs against UCF. That seems crazy to me at this point in the season.

UCF's Taevion Swint returned the second-half kickoff 43 yards to midfield, setting up the touchdown that made it 19-7. The Knights averaged 24.4 yards per kickoff return compared with 10.3 for Kansas. UCF also averaged 55 yards per punt compared with KU's 38.6, a significant disparity in a game where field position mattered.

Of course, not every difference in gross punting averages translates directly into a field-position advantage. But those numbers certainly don't suggest Kansas was winning the special-teams battle. And in a game decided by one point, those things matter.

Kansas is now 3-10 in one-score games since the beginning of the 2024 season.

We've discussed this repeatedly, and there are legitimate questions about how much of that record can be attributed to coaching, execution, and plain old bad luck. Sometimes the opponent makes an outstanding play. Sometimes a reasonable coaching decision produces a terrible result. And sometimes a team just gets an unfortunate bounce. But thirteen close games is a pretty substantial collection of opportunities to demonstrate that you can finish.

I'm not going to pretend to know what defensive coverage Kansas called on UCF's final possession, or which players were responsible for every completion. But we don't need to diagnose the defensive scheme to recognize that allowing a touchdown with 61 seconds remaining, after twice forcing third-and-long, is unacceptable.

And while I don't think it's fair to blame KU for scoring the go-ahead touchdown too quickly, it is fair to expect the defense to preserve a six-point lead with barely a minute remaining. In last week's conversation with Tim Riordan , we discussed the difference between showing signs of improvement and actually producing results. Tim noted that Kansas's competitive losses reminded him of Leipold's early years at Buffalo.

But as I pointed out then, Leipold is in Year 6 at Kansas, not Year 2. At some point, being competitive isn't enough. You have to win these games. And that's where the responsibility ultimately falls on the coaching staff. Not because every close loss is necessarily the result of a bad decision, but because identifying and correcting recurring problems is part of the job.

The most frustrating part is that this team keeps showing us what it could be.

Saturday's second-half offensive performance was genuinely impressive. Marshall was outstanding after halftime. The defensive line made big plays. Kansas overcame a 19-point deficit and took the lead with just over a minute remaining.

I'm going to go with Isaiah Marshall. After an absolutely miserable first half, Marshall finished with 335 combined passing and rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and the kind of fourth-quarter performance that should have won the game. His ability to make plays with his legs transformed the offense after halftime, and the 95-yard touchdown drive was outstanding. Whatever problems Kansas had offensively, Marshall was also the biggest reason the Jayhawks nearly overcame them.

For all the good Marshall provided on Saturday, we still have to talk about the first-half offense. Sixty-one yards, two first downs, five punts, and a lost fumble. Kansas was fortunate to trail by only five points at halftime, then immediately compounded the problem with another turnover that helped UCF build a 26-7 lead. You can't spend more than half a football game being completely incompetent offensively and expect to win consistently.

Do I really need to go over the last 61 seconds again?

Isaiah Marshall completed 21 of 32 passes for 210 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions. He added 125 rushing yards on 13 carries (9.6 YPC) and two rushing touchdowns.

Khijohnn Cummings-Coleman rushed 11 times for 48 yards and a touchdown, adding one reception for nine yards. He lost a fumble in the third quarter that set up UCF in plus territory.

Dylan Edwards carried 13 times for 22 yards and the go-ahead touchdown. Edwards lost a fumble in the second quarter as well.

Keaton Kubecka caught five passes for 71 yards, including a 30-yard reception and the critical fourth-down conversion on KU's final touchdown drive.

Nahzae Cox caught one pass for 42 yards, setting up the go-ahead score.

Nik McMillan had six receptions for 31 yards and caught the two-point conversion that put Kansas ahead by six.

Cam Pickett added five catches for 37 yards, while Carson Bruhn caught three passes for 20 yards.

Blake Herold led Kansas with eight tackles, including four tackles for loss, and forced a fumble.

Leroy Harris III recorded six tackles, three sacks, and a forced fumble.

David Santiago added six tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, one sack, a fumble recovery, and a pass breakup.

Trey Lathan finished with seven tackles and an interception.

Jalen Todd recorded five tackles and a pass breakup.

Martin Connington made all three extra-point attempts and connected on a 34-yard field goal.

Matthew Gill punted five times for 193 yards, averaging 38.6 yards per attempt.

Kansas will meet up with Kentucky for a neutral-site matchup in Chicago on Tuesday for the annual Champions Classic at…

Oh… Really? … Football? … Still??? … What do you mean there's three more? … I hoped thought it was basketball season already? … Dangit… Okay, fine.

Kansas (3-6, 1-5 Big 12) travels to Morgantown to face Western Virginia on Saturday, November 14. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Central on ESPNU.

The Jayhawks need to win all three remaining games to reach bowl eligibility. KU beat the Mountaineers 41-10 in Lawrence last season, so there's at least some recent history to feel good about.

Of course, Kansas was also undefeated against UCF before Saturday.


Source: Sports

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