About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement Lane Kiffin will either move above or below .500 in SEC play this weekend as his LSU team faces a critical road test against conference insurgent Kentucky before embarking on a brutal second half of the season to come.
Kentucky has taken important steps in Will Stein's first year as head coach. Sitting at 4-1 overall, with just one bad half against Alabama against them, the Wildcats are on a three-game win streak that included a road win at then-No. 9 Texas A&M.
LSU is playing college football 's third ranked offense and second-ranked defense. But sitting at 1-1 in conference play with that loss to Ole Miss, there's no room for error with four of its last seven games coming against ranked opponents.
What do the experts think of this matchup? For that, let's turn to the SP+ college football prediction model to get an idea of who is favored in this situation.
NCAA Football: Clemson at Louisiana State Sep 5, 2026; Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA; LSU Tigers head coach Lane Kiffin looks on before a game against the Clemson Tigers at Tiger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)
Facing a critical road test, the model expects the Tigers to pass against a resurgent SEC foe.
SP+ predicts that LSU will defeat Kentucky by a projected score of 33 to 20 and will win the matchup by an expected margin of 13 points in the process.
The model gives Kiffin's side a strong 79 percent chance of outright victory.
SP+ is a "tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency" that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring "the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football."
How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 146-122-3 in its picks against the spread with a 54.4 win percentage.
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Don't knock the progress Kentucky has made with Stein at the helm already, but this still looks like a mismatch strongly against their favor on both lines.
Kentucky ranks a solid 35th in FBS in yards per carry, but LSU allows just four yards per rush on the other side, ranking fourth nationally. The Wildcats rank a poor 92nd in sacks taken, while the Tigers rank second in sacks recorded.
Kentucky is 131st out of 138 teams in offensive third down conversion rate, while LSU is 10th in the opposite category moving the ball, and third overall in defensive success rate. Those mismatches, in particular, will conspire against the Wildcats building any real sustained drives.
What happens? LSU beats Kentucky and covers the spread.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Source: Sport
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